How We Got Here
When David Ross was hired as the 61st manager of the Chicago Cubs after the 2019 season we knew they were getting a strong clubhouse leader. Ross had shown those traits consistently during his fifteen-year major league career with seven different franchises. It would take a strong leader to steer the Cubs through the 2020 and 2021 baseball seasons. Though David Ross’s leadership was never really in question, the sample size for his in-game managerial acumen is still pretty small. We’ve gotten glimpses, but to this point Ross has had many more opportunities to flex his leadership abilities than his in-game strategy. So what have we learned about David Ross so far in his Cubs tenure?
Year 1: 2020
The 2020 season was an outlier in so many ways that it’s hard to extract much value. But the leadership we knew Ross would bring to the Cubs was critical in navigating the uncertainty of Major League Baseball during a global pandemic. Ross’s first Spring Training as Cubs skipper in 2020 was abruptly cut short on March 13 when the league hit pause due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Tons of uncertainty followed, both within baseball and outside it. MLB players began opting out of the season for fear of putting themselves and their families at risk. The pandemic hit home when Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy had a tough battle with the virus in June. After MLB and the Players’ Association agreed on how to proceed with the 2020 season, Ross needed to prepare his team for an unconventional Opening Day on July 24. He would need to hold his players accountable to the health and safety protocols that, if not closely followed, could derail the team’s ambitions and maybe even the entire league’s ability to operate safely. Ultimately he and the Cubs navigated a shortened 60 game schedule in which zero Cubs players tested positive for the virus. Through all the uncertainty Ross led the Cubs to a NL Central Division championship and the playoffs, though the Cubs had barely walked in the door before the Miami Marlins escorted them out, losing two games to zero in a best-of-three format.
Year 2: 2021
Most accurately referred to as the season the Cubs fell off the cliff, 2021 really felt like two different seasons in one. The first three months of the season were exciting. The Cubs were in first place and on June 24 threw a combined no-hitter against the Dodgers. Then came an eleven-game losing streak that, when it ended on July 7, saw the Cubs sitting 8.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. With the Cubs falling out of contention in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline, trade rumors for the team’s core players spread quickly. When the deadline arrived, Rizzo, Bryant, Báez, and Kimbrel were some of the biggest names who found new homes. These were guys Rossy had played with, won a World Series with, and then managed. A legendary era of Cubs baseball ended in the middle of the 2021 season and Ross’s clubhouse leadership would help the team navigate the final two months that left us feeling like the cupboard was bare. The Cubs roster changed overnight. Instead of the same reliable names that had been mainstays in the Cubs lineup for 5 years, players like Frank Schwindel, Rafael Ortega, Patrick Wisdom, and Michael Hermosillo became the everyday players despite not being household names. Hermosillo is a player I hoped Ross would have played more in the final two months of 2021, but Ross continued to give the plate appearances to Jason Heyward. That struck me as an odd decision considering the Cubs weren’t chasing a playoff spot. My perspective is that there was probably more value in using those plate appearances to evaluate Hermosillo. I’m glad the Cubs were able to re-sign Hermosillo to a one-year contract after non-tendering him late last winter. 2022 is a golden opportunity to find out what he can be for the Cubs when they return to contention.
Year 3: 2022
On March 11, the Cubs announced they had signed Ross to a three-year contract extension. Ross would have been entering the final year of the three-year contract he signed before the 2020 season, so I’m glad the Cubs took action on providing stability and leadership in the clubhouse (cough *now do Willson Contreras* cough). Not giving Ross the assurance that he would be the manager beyond 2022 would have been a weird path for the Cubs this season because there just hasn’t been enough of a sample size of managerial acumen to say Ross isn’t the right guy to lead the Cubs into their next era. While the Cubs aren’t going to be favorites to win the division or make a deep playoff run, I do expect the Cubs to be competitive enough in 2022 that Ross will have to make some impactful in-game decisions that will finally let us evaluate him in that space.
One thing in Ross’s favor for this season is the universal DH finally coming to the National League. This makes decisions on pulling pitchers for pinch hitters irrelevant since we (mercifully) don’t have to witness pitchers hit anymore. Pulling pitchers becomes a much more straightforward decision when the impacts to the offensive lineup are moot.
The way the Cubs’ roster is constructed for this season is different than in years past. I fully expect Ross to be heavily matchup-oriented on a game-by-game basis when constructing the lineup. This isn’t a roster where he can trot out his best nine and expect them to be world-beaters. He will need to play the right players in the right situations that leverage their strengths if the team is going to succeed. For example, when the Cubs face hard-throwing right-handed starters (AKA the entire Milwaukee Brewers starting rotation) we could see:
- Villar start at 3B over Wisdom
- Rivas start at 1B over Schwindel
- Hoerner start at SS over Simmons
Those are hitters who handle velocity well so Ross could choose to start them to leverage those abilities. I expect there will be platoon combinations all over the field: Schwindel and Rivas at first base, Madrigal and Hoerner at second base, Simmons and Hoerner at shortstop, Wisdom and Villar at third base, Happ and Frazier in left field, Heyward and Hermosillo in center field, and Madrigal and Contreras at DH. And we’ll see multiple versions of platoon combinations with those players. Having the universal DH gives Ross even greater flexibility. We could even see Nico slide into center field at times when Simmons’ is healthy enough to return to the lineup. Cubs lineups will probably be a combination of the best run prevention defense along with having hitters in the lineup who are better matchups against that day’s opposing pitcher. As a fan my advice is this: before reacting negatively to a lineup we didn’t expect, let’s see how the matchups play out. And keep in mind Ross has more flexibility with pinch hitters because of the DH, so just because one player is starting doesn’t mean he will get four plate appearances that day. (However, if Heyward plays in situations where it makes more sense to give plate appearances to Hermosillo or Frazier, WE RIOT.)
Ross will have to balance playing a hot bat versus putting the right player in advantageous situations based on their strengths. This is one of the things that excites me most about the 2022 season because it’s very different from recent Cubs teams (which could be good!). If Ross pulls the right levers, I think we will all be pleasantly surprised by this version of the Cubs. If things go right, 2022 may even feel like more of a steppingstone into a 2023 season with higher expectations rather than a rebuilding sell-off season. David Ross is the right guy to maximize the potential from this roster and the 2022 season is his chance to push some key players a little closer to becoming part of the “next great Cubs team”.
The 368 Project 